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Forecast Weights

How much each signal contributes to predicted daily demand. Must sum to 100%.

Historical / Seasonal Avg sales in the next 2 months from prior years × auto YoY growth
%
Recent Trend Trailing 3-month daily average
%
Short-term Momentum Last 30-day run rate vs prior 30 days — detects spikes & drops
%
Total: 100% ✓

YoY growth is calculated automatically from your invoice history (last 12 months vs prior 12 months, capped at ±50%). No manual input needed.

Reorder Point — Batch Safety Multiplier

Your ROP is calculated as: avg monthly sales × lead time (months) × safety multiplier. The multiplier acts as your buffer — it means you hold that many times the demand expected during your lead time, so a sudden program order won't catch you short.

×
1.5× = lean buffer · 2× = standard · 3× = high protection for critical items or volatile programs

Controls how much extra safety stock is added to absorb demand spikes. Higher = more buffer, fewer stockouts, but more capital tied up. Applied as Z × σ (monthly std dev) × √lead time.

Active:
Standard covers most businesses. High or Critical for items where a stockout means lost program accounts.

🔴 Critical — months of cover < lead time in months (you'll run out before the order arrives)
🟡 Warning — months of cover < lead time × multiplier (inside your safety buffer)
🟢 Healthy — months of cover ≥ lead time × multiplier

📐 How the math works Tap to expand — all formulas explained
1 · Monthly Baseline

Total units sold in the last 24 months divided by 24. This is your overall average — used as a fallback for calendar months with no historical data. Items under 0.5 units/month are flagged as slow movers.

Avg Monthly = Total Units (last 24 mo) ÷ 24
2 · Seasonal Forecast (lead-time aware)

Instead of projecting a flat average, we look at which specific calendar months fall within your lead time window and use what has historically sold in those months. This means ordering in February (heading into spring peak) produces a higher ROP than ordering in September (heading into slow season).

Seasonal Demand = Σ avg(same calendar month, prior years) for each month ahead
Example: 6-month lead time from April → projects May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct. If May has historically been 40 units, that month contributes 40 to the projection — not the 10/mo flat average.
Months with no prior-year data fall back to the baseline monthly average.
3 · YoY Growth Factor

Automatically detected from your actual sales data. Compares the last 12 months against the prior 12 months. If your business is growing, the projection scales up; if declining, it scales down.

Growth = (Last 12 mo − Prior 12 mo) ÷ Prior 12 mo  ·  Capped at ±50%
Returns 1.0 (no adjustment) when less than 24 months of data is available.
4 · Batch Safety Multiplier

Because you place large batch orders and customers can drop big program orders at any time, your ROP includes structural buffer. The multiplier means you aim to hold that many times the projected lead-time demand before you need to reorder.

Batch Buffer = Seasonal Demand × Growth Factor × Multiplier
1.5× — Lean. — Standard default. — High protection for critical lines.
5 · σ Spike Buffer (Safety Stock)

Protects against lumpy, unpredictable demand — a single month of 40 units when the average is 10. Measures how variable your monthly sales actually are and adds a buffer proportional to that volatility.

Safety Stock = Z × σmonthly × √Lead Time (months)
Z — Service level: 1.65 (95%) · 2.05 (98%) · 2.33 (99%)
σmonthly — Standard deviation of monthly sales (last 24 months). High σ = spiky demand = bigger buffer.
√Lead Time — Variability accumulates non-linearly over time.
6 · Reorder Point & Status

The final trigger. When Net Available drops to or below ROP, you need to order.

ROP = Batch Buffer + Safety Stock
🔴 Critical — Net Available ≤ ROP: order immediately
🟡 Warning — Net Available ≤ ROP × 1.5: plan your next order
🟢 Healthy — Net Available > ROP × 1.5
Net Available = On Hand + Incoming POs
Last Sync
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QBWC Credentials

The QBWC password is stored in GCP Secret Manager as QBWC_PASS and is never exposed to the dashboard or Firestore.

Username: lana_sync  ·  To rotate the password, update the secret in Secret Manager then re-enter it in QBWC.

Secret Manager secured
QBWC Setup Instructions click to expand
  1. Open QuickBooks Desktop and make sure your company file is open.
  2. Go to File → App Management → Update Web Services (or search "Web Connector" in QB Help).
  3. Click Add an Application and select LANA-inventory.qwc from this project folder.
  4. QuickBooks will warn about access — click Yes, always allow access.
  5. In the Web Connector, find LANA Inventory Sync and enter the password you saved above.
  6. Check the Auto-Run checkbox so it runs on schedule.
  7. Click Update Selected to trigger the first sync immediately.

The SOAP endpoint is: https://us-central1-lana-bda40.cloudfunctions.net/qbwcSoap
The first sync pulls 5 years of invoice & sales receipt history — it may take a few minutes.

Manual CSV Import (fallback) use only if QBWC is unavailable

Export three reports from QuickBooks, save as CSV, then upload here. Each import overwrites the previous data for that report type.

📦
Inventory Stock Status
Reports → Inventory → Inventory Stock Status by Item → Export to Excel → Save as CSV
No file selected
Choose file
📊
Sales by Item Detail
Reports → Sales → Sales by Item Detail → set date range to last 2 years → Export to Excel → Save as CSV
No file selected
Choose file
🚢
Open Purchase Orders
Reports → Purchases → Open Purchase Orders by Detail → Export to Excel → Save as CSV
No file selected
Choose file
Select at least one file to continue
Customer / Boat Due Date Tasks Items Fulfillment
🏭
Coming Soon
Work order creation by customization type, routing to in-house embroidery or vendors (DTF, patches, screen print), and production status tracking.
📦
Coming Soon
Packaging queues, shipping label generation, and pickup scheduling. Orders ready for fulfillment will appear here after production is complete.